Insecurity hangs over Thai generals as they take world stage

PAVIN CHACHAVALPONGPUN

Prayuth Chan-ocha waves as he leaves a temple after praying for good luck prior to a meeting in Bangkok. © AP

As he boarded the plane from Bangkok to Milan Oct. 14 for the 10th annual Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), Thailand's new Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha was no doubt feeling optimistic about his government's prospects. The visit to Italy highlights the growing confidence of the former army chief and leader of the May 22 coup, and symbolizes his government's hopes of acceptance in international forums such as ASEM, which starts today.
    It is unclear whether Prayuth will hold high-level bilateral talks with European leaders in Milan, although Thai officials have said he hopes to do so. But his presence is intended to convince the world that Thailand is on the path back to democracy.
    Claiming that he staged the coup to save Thailand from falling into a political abyss, Prayuth has promised to implement sweeping reforms and prepare the country for elections. But there have been no indications of serious progress on democratic development. On the contrary, the democratic space continues to shrink as the military entrenches itself in politics.

    The debut of the Prayuth government on the international stage is designed to let the world know that the Thai administration is one it can live with. The prime minister's visit to Myanmar Oct. 9-10 was intended to carry a similar message -- that the regime is gaining recognition and acceptance in the Asian region.
    Myanmar's military commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, laid the groundwork during an official trip to Bangkok in July, declaring: "It was right (for the Thai generals) to seize power to protect national security and people's safety." Prayuth's return visit successfully added a layer of legitimacy to his government.
    However, the international community should not be misled by pledges of political reform and elections; these have never been a top priority of the generals. The professed aim of the government is to cleanse Thai politics of corruption, supposedly nurtured by the controversial regime of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. But this owes more to expediency than to real intentions. The underlying truth is that the military is here to stay, and is busy working on a governmental infrastructure that will allow it retain political power.
    From writing an interim constitution that empowers the military, to appointing allies in the National Legislative Council, the National Reform Council and the Cabinet, the military has set out to fashion its own control network. Even ostensibly independent agencies have been drawn in. The National Anti-Corruption Commission has targeted key figures in the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai Party, in large part to prevent them returning to compete in elections. The result is clear: even if forced from the frontline of politics, the military will remain able to pull the strings of power through legal means.

Myanmar's military commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, salutes female army officers during a graduation ceremony at a Myanmar Army training school in a suburb of Yangon. © AP

 For now, Thais seem to be adapting to this situation rather obediently. On the surface, society is calm. This is an illusion. The relative peace is possible because martial law is still in operation and the military has signaled zero tolerance of dissent. This uneasy state of tranquility is unlikely to last. The political temperature will inevitably rise, and perhaps boil over -- especially if elections are postponed. Already, Prayuth has stated he will not fix a timeline for future elections, although the government remains committed to an initial poll before the end of 2015.
   Challenges for the government will arise not only from popular frustration over inevitable delays in restoring democratic processes, but also from a heightened sense of economic insecurity during this critical period. While it is true that large conglomerates, both Thai and foreign, might be content with -- or even welcome -- military rule, the honeymoon period will not last. Meanwhile, ordinary Thais may grow anxious about looming economic mismanagement at the hands of the junta.
The rise of 'Prayuthism'
So far, Prayuth has relied on a mix of trusted generals and expert technocrats to deal with the hard parts of economic reforms. Even so, his reforms are strikingly similar to the approach of Thaksin and his sister, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. In effect, he has recycled populism a la Thaksin, but under the new guise of "Prayuthism." These policies -- which range from cash hand-outs to mega-infrastructure projects, new subsidies, "happiness festivals" and nationalist entertainment programs -- are aimed at shoring up popular support for the regime.
    But there are already signs that the government may not be up to the job it has taken on. These are still early days, but its seeming inability to come up with convincing plans to stimulate the economy was no doubt a factor in the World Bank's sharp downward revision to forecasts for Thailand's growth this year, to just 1.5% from its April estimate of 3%.
    Amid the slow pace of recovery in domestic consumption and exports, the agricultural sector continues to be vulnerable, and the government's confusing policies have exacerbated the problems. For example, it has promised cash to rice farmers to abandon plans for a second crop, in order to avoid overproduction. It is also trying to mollify angry rubber planters by injecting $1 billion to prop up falling prices. But these are short-term measures that only prolong the subsidy mentality and the agricultural sector's dependence on the state.
Graft allegations
On top of this, corruption allegations have surfaced against certain individuals in the government. M.L. Panadda Diskul, Minister of the Prime Ministerial Office, became the target of such allegations recently when he purchased state-of-the-art microphones and electronic curtains for the office at higher than market prices. Prayuth resolved the issue by returning the products to the company, without properly investigating the case.
    As part of their terms of appointment, NLC members have had to declare their financial assets. General Preecha Chan-ocha, brother of Prayuth was revealed as unusually rich, with almost 90 million baht ($2.7 million) in his bank accounts and those of his wife. Preecha has been unable to explain the sources of his income.
     Other military and police officers in the NLC also appear to have amassed large sums. Prayuth has urged Thais not to jump to conclusions about this wealth, noting it may have been inherited and by no means indicates corruption. It is also true that the accumulation of great wealth by members of the Thai legislature has been far from unknown in the past. But the recent declarations suggest the current administration is no more ethical than the politicians it replaced.
    Against this background, it is possible that Thai society is waiting for the right moment to stand up against the generals. Thailand is approaching an imminent royal transition -- a period that will bring tremendous changes to one of the country's most important institutions, as well as to the political landscape. King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the country's revered monarch, is 86 and ailing. The heir apparent, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, is not popular. Thais have long feared that the end of King Bhumibol's reign will bring political instability.
    Anxiety over the royal transition is likely to add to worries about military rule. Together, they could further delay any serious democratic development. At worst, there could be support for violent opposition to the military as patience grows thin and the desire for democracy grows. Prayuth will not say so in Milan, but the government is much less secure than it appears.
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