Burma's protracted ethnic and religious conflicts and vulnerability to natural disasters are two significant factors responsible for the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Burmese during the past decade. The conflicts are multipronged and complex, and it is unlikely that a new government will be able to promptly put an end to militarization and prevent further conflict-induced displacement.
Many point to the Buddhist majority/Muslim minority dynamic as one of the main contributing factors to ongoing tensions, in addition to the new government's attempts to expand the command structure of the Tatmadaw (national armed forces) into non-state armed groups' territories — many of which are driven by regional interests in resource extraction.
The Rohingya have been described by the United Nations as one of the most persecuted minorities in the world. They have been denied Burmese citizenship for decades. They are the victims of violent attacks and oppression at the hands of the Tatmadaw. Although other Muslim minorities peacefully coexist in communities across the country, the Rohingya are a particularly large group: The most recent UN estimates available report around 800,000 Rohingyas among Burma's population of 55 million. Tens of thousands of Rohingya have fled the region over the past few decades, mainly seeking refuge in Bangladesh — where authorities there were accused of violently cracking down on these refugees in 2010 — as well as other neighboring countries.
Members of both the Buddhist majority and Muslim minorities have been accused of committing violent acts against each other, including the burning of monasteries in Muslim-majority areas and mosques in Buddhist-majority regions.
Adding to the instability is the ongoing ethnic conflict in the Karen (or Kayin) state in the southeast (sharing a border with Thailand), although efforts are being made by the Burmese government to engage with the separatist Karen National Union.
Many displaced Burmese seek shelter in camps along the Thai border. The Thailand Burma Border Consortium (TBBC) estimated there were 83,000 registered refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) along the border as of December 2012. However, the real number is much higher as most arrivals since 2005 are unregistered. About 79 percent of the 83,000 were Karen, 10 percent Karenni, and the remaining percentage comprised of multiple ethnicities. In addition, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is currently assisting some 239,000 persons affected by displacement in the nation's southeastern region.
More recently, some 75,000 people fled their homes in the northern Kachin state after fighting began between insurgents and the Tatmadaw. The violent conflict has drawn international attention. In 2011, President Sein launched a reconciliation process — involving ceasefire agreements, political dialogue, and a meeting to bring together representatives of all ethnic groups — in attempt to bring an end to the violence. However, violent attacks have seemingly intensified throughout the country.
In addition, President Sein has proposed to oust Muslims from the country — sparking international controversy. He told a visiting UN delegation in July 2012 that Muslims must provide proof of residence for three generations before they would be allowed Burmese citizenship. Those who could not do so would be considered a “threat to the peace of the nation” and would be sent to camps and deported. More recently, President Sein has suggested that he would look into addressing the situation and reportedly ordered a commission of inquiry to produce a report within an undetermined timeframe.
Natural Disasters, Refugee Resettlement
With regard to natural disaster-induced migration, the cyclone Nargis hit the country in May 2008, killing more than 140,000 people and severely affecting more than 2 million others. In October 2010, cyclone Giri hit the western coastal state of Rakhine, displacing more than 71,000 people and destroying more than 14,000 homes. A strong earthquake hit the southern part of the Shan State, near the Thai and Lao borders, in March 2011.
The country's weak infrastructure and severe lack of provisions and planning have left — and continue to leave — large swathes of the population without protection and unprepared to deal with possible future natural disasters.
Large-scale resettlement of Burmese refugees displaced by violent conflict or natural disasters began in 2005, and since that year UNHCR has referred 103,333 refugees from Burma for resettlement. Of them, nearly 58,000 have been resettled, mainly in the United States, Australia, Canada, and other countries.
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